Talking Geopolitics

Is the US-Ukraine relationship at a breaking point, or is this just the next page in Trump's negotiation playbook? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss the recent developments in US-Ukraine diplomacy and Trump's economic-first strategy, the unlikelihood of a military victory after five years of stalemate, and the rhetoric versus action of the European response. Also: External influence on European unrest? Episode recorded on October 21, 2026. Subscribe to our free newsletter and receive Special Report: Reviving NATO's Eastern Line by Antonia Colibasanu at http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter. Questions provided by paid GPF subscribers. Subscribe today at https://geopoliticalfutures.com/subscribe/.

Are we living through an unprecedented collapse of the global order, or is this just another turbulent chapter in the geopolitical cycle? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to answer subscriber questions on the state of the world. Topics include the future of the Middle East and US strategy, the value of "ineffective" diplomatic maneuvers, and a big-picture evaluation of global economic vulnerabilities. Episode recorded on October 8, 2026. Subscribe to our free newsletter and receive our Special Report: Reviving NATO's Eastern Line by Antonia Colibasanu at http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter. Questions provided by paid GPF subscribers. Subscribe today at https://geopoliticalfutures.com/subscribe/.

Is Eastern Europe finally free from the crushing dominance of foreign powers? In this recent ClubGPF Live Discussion, GPF analyst Ridvan Bari Urcosta joins GPF Chairman George Friedman to discuss the diminished power of Russia, the obsolescence of Cold War geopolitical frameworks, and what this shift means for Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe. This ClubGPF Live Discussion was recorded on September 15, 2026. To learn more about ClubGPF, including more free audio and video clips, go to https://geopoliticalfutures.com/join-clubgpf-bundle/.

On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss the unfolding security incident at RAF Fairford, the fallout from the US-China summit and Xi's letter to Trump, and the overblown risks of AI in geopolitics and related technology. Information on the RAF base plot is changing rapidly. Episode recorded on September 28, 2026. Subscribe to our free newsletter and receive Special Report: Reviving NATO's Eastern Line by Antonia Colibasanu at http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter.

It's a high-stakes week for global geopolitics and diplomacy. On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith for a broad discussion on the real-world impact of fiery UN debates, the future of European security and Russian provocation, and how global trade hangs in the balance ahead of the US-China summit in Washington. Also: Iran War impacts and flashpoint Taiwan. Episode recorded on September 23, 2026. Subscribe to our free newsletter and receive Special Report: Reviving NATO's Eastern Line by Antonia Colibasanu at http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter.

Eighty years after World War II, the far right is rising again in Europe. Is their recent success a sign of a geopolitical shift? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss the AfD's regional victory in Germany, how fading historical guilt and tensions over cultural identity serve as unifying populist forces, and how similar movements in France and Britain call back to pre-WWI national posturing. Also: NATO obsolescence, Eastern Europe, and Russia. Episode recorded on September 10, 2026. Learn more about GeoEconomic Lens and access the first issue for free at https://geopoliticalfutures.com/lens/introducing-lens/. Learn more about GPF and subscribe to our free newsletter at http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter.

It's been an interesting few days for US-Russia relations. On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss the CIA Director's trip to Moscow, the drone plot in Germany, and reports of Russia's help in an Iranian advanced weapons program. What does a threat assessment of Russia reveal about these tactical and diplomatic shifts? What are the impacts on European security, US-Russia relations, and future peace in Ukraine? Also: Nuclear deterrence and Cold War lessons. Episode recorded on September 2, 2026. Learn more about GeoEconomic Lens and access the first issue for free at https://geopoliticalfutures.com/lens/introducing-lens/. Learn more about GPF and subscribe to our free newsletter at http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter.

What does the transformation of the PLA mean for China's global position and strategy? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman and GPF analyst and China expert Victoria Herczegh join host Christian Smith to discuss how Xi Jinping's supreme desire for loyalty impacts the PLA's effectiveness, the operational risks of rapid technological modernization without critical evaluation, and what's next for US-China relations as signals of de-escalation appear ahead of next month's summit. Also: Taiwan's symbolic role. Episode recorded on August 18, 2026. Learn more about GeoEconomic Lens and access the first issue for free at https://geopoliticalfutures.com/lens/introducing-lens/. Learn more about GPF and subscribe to our free newsletter at http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter.

Is last week's signing of a landmark mutual defense agreement between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan a further signal of global geopolitical realignment? On this special extended episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman and Middle East expert and GPF contributor Kamran Bokhari join host Christian Smith for a deep dive into the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement and how it shifts the balance of power across the Middle East and beyond. Also: GPF Chief Geoeconomist Antonia Colibasanu discusses this month's Geoeconomic Lens, and the future of sanctions and the war in Ukraine. Dr. Bokhari is a Senior Resident Fellow with the Middle East Policy Council and a Senior Director at the New Lines Institute for Strategy & Policy in Washington, DC. Episode recorded on August 11, 2026. Learn more about GeoEconomic Lens and access the first issue for free at https://geopoliticalfutures.com/lens/introducing-lens/.

Is modern technology leading us toward a new geopolitical weapon? In this recent ClubGPF Live Discussion, Retired USCG Rear Admiral Doug Fears joins GPF Chairman George Friedman to discuss the evolution of information warfare, how state actors can exacerbate social fractures using AI, and why cyberspace as a whole must evolve or become a threat to national security. This ClubGPF Live Discussion was recorded on July 16, 2026. To learn more about ClubGPF video discussions and to save your seat for our next session, go to https://geopoliticalfutures.com/clubgpf/video-discussions/.

Will Iran's long-game strategy and the United States' limited military options lead to capitulation or the crumbling of Trump's presidency? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss the historical scope of the Iran conflict and its "existential" threat, the limits of US force amid mounting political pressure at home, and Iran's negotiation strategy and leverage in the nuclear stalemate. Episode recorded on July 28, 2026. Learn more about GeoEconomic Lens and access the first issue for free at https://geopoliticalfutures.com/lens/introducing-lens/. Learn more about GPF and subscribe to our free newsletter at http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter.

What does Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent visit to Australia, New Zealand, and Indonesia mean for India, China, and the rest of the Indo-Pacific? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss how Modi's tour signals a strategic pivot for India, how geography and common security interests can be leveraged to buffer China, and what this loose anti-China framework means for the broader geopolitical system. Also: Chinese countermoves. Pakistan looks west. Episode recorded on July 14, 2026. Learn more about GeoEconomic Lens and access the first issue for free at https://geopoliticalfutures.com/lens/introducing-lens/. Learn more about GPF and subscribe to our free newsletter at http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter.

This week's NATO summit in Turkey left big questions about the war in Iran and America's role in European defense. On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss the US-Iran ceasefire breakdown, NATO and the European collective defense dilemma, and Turkey's geopolitical rise and impact on the shifting realities in the region. Episode recorded on July 9, 2026. Learn more about GeoEconomic Lens and access the first issue for free at https://geopoliticalfutures.com/lens/introducing-lens/. Learn more about GPF and subscribe to our free newsletter at http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter.

Will a Russian energy crisis finally lead to a negotiated settlement, or are we headed towards nuclear war? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss Ukrainian target shifts toward energy infrastructure and their impact on Russia's already fragile economy, the impending political crisis inside the Kremlin, and the viability of Russia's potential next steps, including "tactical" nukes, Belarusian involvement, and fully mobilizing reserve forces. Episode recorded on June 29, 2026. Learn more about GeoEconomic Lens and access the first issue for free at https://geopoliticalfutures.com/lens/introducing-lens/. Learn more about GPF and subscribe to our free newsletter at http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter.

Is the US-Iran agreement a real move toward peace or just a fragile memorandum? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss the "deal" and pause in hostilities, the shifting regional dynamics and military forces at play, and how each nation's internal political pressures could lead us straight back to war. Also: the advantage of defense; the US-Israel divide. Episode recorded on June 17, 2026. Learn more about GeoEconomic Lens and access the first issue for free at https://geopoliticalfutures.com/lens/introducing-lens/. Learn more about GPF and subscribe to our free newsletter at http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter.

The US is divided at home and gridlocked abroad. Is the chaos a sign of decline or just the normal process of American progress? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss how underestimating the US led to D-Day, the myth of American decline, and how historical cycles can predict the process of US reinvention. Also: foreign policy shifts and competition with China. Learn more about GeoEconomic Lens and access the first issue for free at https://geopoliticalfutures.com/lens/introducing-lens/. Learn more about GPF and subscribe to our free newsletter at http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter.

Does Trump's tirade to Netanyahu signal the fracture of the historic alliance between the United States and Israel? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss the evolution of US-Israeli relations, their diverging interests in the Middle East, and how Israel's strategic burden spells trouble for regional accommodation. Also: Netanyahu's political future. Learn more about GeoEconomic Lens and access the first issue for free at https://geopoliticalfutures.com/lens/introducing-lens/. Learn more about GPF and subscribe to our free newsletter at http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter.

History echoes as the US increases pressure on Cuba once again. On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss Cuba's unique place in American geopolitics, the cause and potential outcome of the current crisis, and how Cuba fits into the US's new Western Hemisphere strategy. Also: Cuban parallels to other island nations. Learn more about GeoEconomic Lens and access the first issue for free at https://geopoliticalfutures.com/lens/introducing-lens/. Learn more about GPF and subscribe to our free newsletter at http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter.

Is global power built on tanks and treaties, or trade and technology? Introducing your view of the global economy through the lens of geopolitics, GeoEconomic Lens. In this exclusive clip from ClubGPF's Podcast+, Senior Analyst and Chief GeoEconomist Antonia Colibasanu joins host Christian Smith for a primer on geoeconomics and the new offering, the vulnerabilities of global economic interdependence, and the distinction between static and dynamic power. Learn more about GeoEconomic Lens and get access to our inaugural issue for FREE, available now: https://geopoliticalfutures.com/lens/introducing-lens/

With the US, Russia, China, and Europe all at strategic crossroads, the new global geopolitical order is starting to show itself. On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss Russia's internal crises and strategic pivot, the upcoming summit and future of US-China rapprochement, and how Europe is critical not only to Russia's future but to the entire global system. This episode of Talking Geopolitics was recorded on May 11, 2026. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter for a free download from our Special Collection on the Middle East.

Is Putin looking to Trump for a lifeline? How does last week's phone call between the leaders actually signal Russian weakness? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss the geopolitical implications of the meeting, Russia's economic deterioration and internal instability, and what a post-Putin Russia might look like. Also: US troop withdrawals and shifting global alliances. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter for a free download from our Special Collection on the Middle East.

What does the multi-billion-dollar warship deal between Japan and Australia say about the new geopolitical order forming in the Pacific? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss the landmark defense cooperation, its impact on regional power dynamics, and how it may alter the posture of major players like China and the US. Also discussed: the future of oil dependency. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter for a free download from our Special Collection on the Middle East.

A ceasefire is in place, but negotiations are once again breaking down over the conflict in Iran. Are we any closer to a long-term solution? On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss the stalled negotiations, the impacts of the US blockade on Iranian ports, and why this new strategy could be more about China than Iran for Donald Trump. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter for a free download from our Special Collection on the Middle East.

The return of humans to space with the Artemis II's orbit around the moon has captured the hearts and minds of millions around the world. While exploratory space travel enthralls the public, the geopolitics of space and its implications for war are something much less understood. On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss satellites, potential space warfare tactics, the strategic value of the moon, and why we went there in the first place. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter for a free download from our Special Collection on the Middle East.

As we enter the second month of war in the Middle East, bombs continue to fly, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz threatens a global crisis. On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss the military pressures facing Washington and Tehran, the expanding scope of the conflict, and what it can tell us about the future of war. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter for a free download from our Special Collection on the Middle East.

With the long-awaited meeting between Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping delayed until May, all eyes are on the two giants and the long shadow they cast on the Iran war and the world at large. On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss China's strategic restraint in the Middle East, economic fragility and rapprochement with the US, and the importance of Taiwan. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion.

The US-Israeli war with Iran has no end in sight as strikes on both sides continue. With Iran's capitulation failing to materialize and the IRGC's true strength revealed, the conflict is in a state of evolution. On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss shifting US war aims, the rising price of oil as the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint, and just how long this all might last. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion, and to access our full 2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the World.

As war rages in the Middle East, the future of Iran remains an open question. The same can be said for Lebanon, where exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israel have been taking place for more than a week. On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, host Christian Smith is joined by Senior Analyst Hilal Khashan for a ground-level perspective on the escalating conflict in Lebanon, and to explore the broader regional impacts of the Iran war. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion, and to access our full 2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the World.

The ongoing US-Israeli strikes on Iran, which began over the weekend, come after a protracted period of tension, negotiations and military build-up. Tehran has now said it will attack U.S. assets in the region in response to the U.S. and Israeli strikes, which killed several top Iranian officials and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. So why, in a world where the U.S. is trying to withdraw from anything outside the Western Hemisphere, does the U.S. still care about Iran? Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman to discuss how we got here, intelligence failures, and the future of the Iranian regime, which could look quite different or remain just a new version of the same. Visit www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion, and to access our full 2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the World.

Americans are deeply divided, passions are running high, and many fear the Republic is failing. But is any of this actually new? In our recent ClubGPF live discussion, GPF Chairman George Friedman revisited his book The Storm Before the Calm to explain where we are in America's recurring 80-year institutional cycle. Drawing parallels to the Revolution, the Civil War, and the Great Depression, George shows that the current crisis is the least threatening of the four great institutional upheavals in American history. To learn more about ClubGPF, including more free audio and video clips, go to https://geopoliticalfutures.com/join-clubgpf-bundle/.

Following the 2026 Munich Security Conference, the transatlantic alliance appears to be at a crossroads. With the Russian threat failing to manifest and the U.S. shifting its strategic focus, is the "divorce" between these old allies inevitable, or is it a necessary evolution? In this episode of Talking Geopolitics, host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman to examine why the U.S. views European reliance as exploitation rather than obligation, and to explore whether Europe can finally overcome its fragmented history to build a unified defense capability. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion, and to access our full 2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the World.

At January's World Economic Forum in Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney argued that the old world order is not coming back. He went on to say that we are now in an era of great power rivalry, and that middle powers, like Canada, should come together to counter the rise of great powers. So what could the new order look like, and just how much influence can middle powers wield compared to the U.S. and China? They may be smaller by GDP standards but they are not without importance geopolitically. In this episode of Talking Geopolitics, host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman to discuss it all, to examine why the U.S. and Canada can't just decouple from one another, and what will happen to Cuba now that it has reached a tipping point in its economy and its defense. Visit www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion and to access our full 2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the World.

This week, leaders from Russia, Ukraine and the United States will meet in Abu Dhabi for another round of peace talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine; a conflict which has continued for four years this month. After so much fighting, what does Russia still hope to get out of negotiations, and is it willing to concede after not reaching its goals? Russia's economy has suffered immensely as a result of the war and by several measures simply can no longer be considered a major power on the world stage. To discuss the upcoming negotiations, where Europe stands on it all and how parallels can also be drawn between the current conflict and the Vietnam War, Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion and to access our full 2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the World.

Earlier this month, Geopolitical Futures released its annual Forecast, which focuses on the most critical changes to the international order in the year to come. One of the featured predictions in this year's Forecast was on the shifting relationship between the United States and China. It is a relationship that GPF Chairman George Friedman believes will define the next generation of international relations. This week on Talking Geopolitics, George joined host Christian Smith to give a preview of this forecast, and we'll even dive into the perplexing logic of Donald Trump's will-he, won't-he attempt to take ownership of Greenland from Denmark, a NATO ally. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion.

Widespread anti-government protests in Iran have been growing for weeks now in Iran, and the government crackdown has turned deadly. While protests here are not a new phenomenon, many are saying this time things are much different. With the US poised to intervene and the future of the Iranian regime hanging in the balance, this week on the podcast we're taking a look at how the situation is evolving and how it is perceived by the wider region. Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman as well as Geopolitical Futures contributing analyst Kamran Bokhari to break it all down. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion.

With the new U.S. National Security Strategy published by the White House only a month ago, we're already seeing what America's vision for prioritizing the Western Hemisphere looks like. Following America's seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Saturday, the world is now questioning just how far the US might go to achieve its goal. What are its intentions with Cuba, and how far is it willing to push NATO allies in the issue of Greenland? GPF Chairman George Friedman joins Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith for our first podcast of the new year, as we dive into what is going on in the Western Hemisphere. You'll also get a sneak peek into our predictions for China, as part of our upcoming 2026 Forecast. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion.

America's new National Security Strategy reflects a fundamental change in U.S. policy. It prioritizes America maintaining its preeminence in the Western Hemisphere, while avoiding military competition with China as well as European conflicts. At the same time the White House has taken pen to paper on its new policy, military pressure on Venezuela is ramping up as the Trump administration sanctions oil tankers in the region. This week on Talking Geopolitics, GPF Chairman George Friedman joins host Christian Smith to discuss these escalations and what it all has to do with Cuba. And for more analysis, go to https://geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter/ to get access to our free newsletter as well as our NEW special report: Reviving NATO's Eastern Line, by GPF Senior Analyst Antonia Colibasanu. This report is available for a limited time.

America's new National Security Strategy reflects a fundamental change in U.S. strategy. The policy, published at the end of last week, prioritizes America maintaining its preeminence in the Western Hemisphere, avoiding military competition with China and asking Europe to stand on its own feet. Many of these policies are not surprising. But the White House's decision to commit them to paper has given the world a more definitive view of American thinking. This week on Talking Geopolitics, host Christian Smith is again joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman to break down the strategy, what it means for the U.S. and the world, and whether it is an ideological shift or just natural geopolitics in the 21st century. And for more analysis, go to https://geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter/ to get access to our free newsletter as well as our NEW special report: Reviving NATO's Eastern Line, by GPF Senior Analyst Antonia Colibasanu. This report is available for a limited time.

In his book, The Storm Before the Calm, Geopolitical Futures chairman and founder George Friedman explained the challenges that low birth rates and longer life expectancy will bring to America. As an aging population causes a shrinking workforce, this deepening demographic crisis could have long-term impacts across the globe. And the solutions come with their own set of challenges. On this episode of Talking Geopolitics, George joins host Christian Smith to break it all down, from the use of immigration to stabilize labor markets, to artificial intelligence and much more. And for more analysis, go to https://geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter/ to get access to our free newsletter as well as our NEW special report: Reviving NATO's Eastern Line, by GPF Senior Analyst Antonia Colibasanu. This report is available for a limited time.

[REUPLOAD] If the peace proposal currently under negotiation to end the war in Ukraine feels like déjà vu, you're not alone. Throughout the year, hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough have repeatedly surged and faded. But with the surprising terms of the latest proposal now on the table—and U.S. President Donald Trump hinting that this may be a "now or never" moment—the world is asking whether a real path to peace finally exists. Is the deal workable? How are Europe's leaders responding? And what fundamentals of the war risk being overlooked amid the political noise? Joining host Christian Smith to break down the proposal, assess the geopolitical dynamics shaping the negotiations, and explore the evolving economic relationship between the US and Russia and China is GPF Chairman George Friedman. And for more analysis of the region, go to https://geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter/ to get access to our free newsletter as well as our NEW special report: Reviving NATO's Eastern Line, by GPF Senior Analyst…

Russia's war with Ukraine is about to enter yet another winter. Meanwhile in the US, Donald Trump is turning his attention to Russia's southern border in an effort to woo the nations of the South Caucasus with diplomacy. What are the US' goals and what does it hope to gain in pulling these nations closer while Russia is distracted in its fight against NATO to the West? Talking Geopolitics host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman to make sense of the latest developments. And for more analysis of the region, go to https://geopoliticalfutures.com/gpf-newsletter/ to get access to our free newsletter as well as our NEW special report: Reviving NATO's Eastern Line, by GPF Senior Analyst Antonia Colibasanu. This report is available for a limited time.

The Australian defense minister said this week that China's military defense build up required a response. China's defense spending has increased 13 fold in the past 30 years, while its Navy is projected to grow by nearly 50% by the end of the decade. That last statistic would be of particular concern to Australia's defense minister, Richard Marles, who said that open sea lanes, including around China, are crucial to Australia's national security. So how is great power competition playing out in the Asia-Pacific? What is the role of Australia, AUKUS and the Quad, and can America's allies trust the US and its nuclear umbrella to be there as it seeks to disengage from the world. Host Christian Smith is with GPF Chairman George Friedman to discuss this and much more. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion.

The United States, China and Russia are the three main powers of the current era that are vying for dominance on the global stage, all with their own sets of imperatives and challenges. In our recent ClubGPF live discussion, GPF Chairman George Friedman examined the three nations and the main issues they currently face: culture wars and political division in the US, a declining economy in China, and a frozen war in Russia. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion.

"Twelve out of ten." That's how President Trump described this week's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping—a bold rating for one of the most consequential diplomatic encounters in years. But what really came out of it? Was this the start of a new trade understanding or just another pause in a brewing confrontation between two global powers? In this episode of Talking Geopolitics, host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman, speaking from The Citadel in South Carolina, where he's a keynote speaker at an open-source intelligence conference. They unpack the U.S.–China meeting - from tariffs to rare earths -, the fragile economics behind Beijing's export-driven model, and how these developments connect to Friedman's long-term forecast from his book The Next 100 Years. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion.

In recent weeks, tensions between the US and Venezuela have been growing. Several US military strikes have targeted boats in the Caribbean allegedly carrying illicit drugs, and US President Donald Trump has said that he has authorized the CIA to use lethal force in Venezuela. And the issue doesn't end there, now there is wider involvement from Europe and elsewhere. GPF Chairman George Friedman joined host Christian Smith on this episode of Talking Geopolitics to dive into what's really going on, how it ties into the Monroe Doctrine - the policy relating to affairs in the Western Hemisphere - and what Russia's role in all of it is. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion.

As GPF Chairman George Friedman has written about in recent months, the United States is trying to reduce its exposure in foreign conflicts. With the US now entering its third week of a government shutdown, the nation has its own set of crises to work through, while Trump is also working to broker peace in Gaza and a trade agreement with China. How does the current situation fit within the framework of institutional and socioeconomic cycles, as described in George's most recent book, The Storm Before the Calm? And where does President Trump fit into it all? Host Christian Smith is back on the podcast with Dr. Friedman to discuss the US and the historic shifts of the 2020s. Visit www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion. There you'll also find George's new series on the 2020s and Its Historic Shift, including his updated forecast for Poland, Turkey and Japan.

Two years ago this week, Hamas' October 7 attacks stunned Israel and the world. And now for the first time there is palpable excitement that the war in Gaza may be on the path to an end. The first part of Donald Trump's Gaza peace plan seems to have been agreed by Israel and Hamas, though the plan still faces many hurdles. Geopolitical Futures Chairman and Founder George Friedman has joined host Christian Smith on this week's episode of Talking Geopolitics to discuss how we got here, whether the plan will work and also why the Gulf states are so important to the plan's success. This interview was recorded on Thursday, October 9th 2025. Visit http://www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion.

In his 2009 book, The Next 100 Years, GPF Chairman George Friedman forecasted that Turkey would become the major power in the Middle East. As Trump draws down on US involvement abroad, Putin gets bogged down in Russia, and Israel is distracted in Gaza, Turkey is spying opportunities. While Turkey's dominance has been on the rise despite its own internal instability, Saudi Arabia on the other side of the region has been giving it a run for its money. In this week's episode of Talking Geopolitics, host Christian Smith is joined by GPF contributor Kamran Bokhari to discuss all this as well as the latest developments out of Israel following Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's public apology to Qatar. Visit www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion. There you'll also find George's new series on the 2020s and Its Historic Shift, including his updated forecast for Poland, Turkey and Japan.

Already this month, Russia has violated the airspace of three NATO countries: Estonia, Romania and Poland - twice. What is Russian President Vladimir Putin trying to achieve with these bold moves, and what impact might they have on Ukraine negotiations? GPF Chairman George Friedman joined host Christian Smith to discuss the latest geopolitical developments in the region as well as outline his forecast for Poland's evolution from his 2009 book, The Next 100 Years. Visit www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion. There you'll also find George's new series on the 2020s and Its Historic Shift, including his updated forecast for Poland, Turkey and Japan.

GPF contributor Kamran Bokhari recently wrote that massive geopolitical change has come to the Middle East in the form of the attack on Gaza, a weakening of Iran, paralyzing of Hezbollah, the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria and much more. Considering all these developments and the way in which Israel's actions are driving events in the region, Dr. Bokhari was back on the Club's Podcast+ with host Christian Smith to discuss Israel's wider strategy and what he predicts for the future. Recorded Thursday, September 11, 2025. This clip is part of a full-length episode available to our ClubGPF members. To find out more about ClubGPF, go to www.geopoliticalfutures.com/joinclubgpf.