Saxo Market Call

Today, a look at yesterday's historic meltdown in US equities, which broadened out to the almost all sectors in addition to the ground zero of the AI trade. We look at new developments in intermarket dynamics on this move as well, especially in currencies as the US dollar finally came alive as a safe haven as in the days of yore. This and much more on post-election thoughts from the pod host, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Saxo Bank John J. Hardy. Links This is hilarious - all of the hyperbillionaires set to sing "We were always blue"? Warning - obvious deepfake, if only for entertainment purposes. John's The FX Trader from today. What might Trump be up to over the last two years of his presidency after the drubbing he got in the mid-terms? Let's hope he won't behave like this. Hedge fund manager Harris Kupperman on how to find outlier investment ideas. Could ChatGPT have been decisive in this election? An intriguing possibility with profound implications for the politics if so! Read daily in-depth market…

Today, we look at the remarkable US equity market session yesterday, as the market fears that the Democratic mid-term sweep will slow the pace of data centre buildouts, sending data center infrastructure and chip companies into a tailspin even as the broader market rallied steeply. How durable is this trade? Also, further thoughts on the implications of the US mid-terms, macro and FX developments and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links The FT looks at the slate of candidates most likely to jostle to the front for a 2028 US Presidential Election run. Lee Hepner breaks down the historic mid-term election, arguing what it was and what it wasn't while pulling out some interesting subplots and specific developments. Michael Every says beware of drawing too many conclusions on the direction the Iran conflict may take from here based on the post mid-term election vibe shift in energy markets. Brent Johnson takes the view that this election won't change the…

Today we look at the massive rebuke of Trump and the Republicans across the US as the Senate, House and Governors' races across the nation tilted far more strongly to the Democrats than almost anyone was prognosticating. We note how the market is absorbing the news and look at what matters next for markets and how they will interact with the coming political cycle as well as the immediate aftermath of this historic election. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is…

A brief, last minute podcast in which we drastically lower our conviction level on the strong blue wave scenario for the US mid-term elections after listening to a very interesting podcast suggesting, based on plausible analysis, that the polls give us no idea of what may happen and that the Republicans could even retain the house. Link: The Grant Williams Podcast interviewing Marvin Barth on the midterm elections. Excellent questions from the host. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The…

Today, a last minute look at the odds shift in the US mid-term elections and whether we are facing a blue wave or even a "blue tsunami" in favour of the Democrats. We also put the magnifying class to the notion that the US mid-term elections are a good time to put money to work in the US stock market. Elsewhere, we dive into yesterday's wild market internals, the somewhat less wild macro and FX backdrop and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Lawrence Lepard on the Thoughtful Money podcast lays out the basic playbook for the next great intervention and the bullish case for precious metals. Craig Tindale with his latest long form piece on a supposed US plan to revalue its gold holdings and pass the value bump on to the treasury, a first step in a profound transformation to revalue the Treasury's debt. The FT on Donald Trump's imperial presidency facing a popular uprising. The writer uses a wonderful metaphor of the embattled US President facing his…

Today, a look at a wild and woolly trading session on Friday, as the market was reluctant to hold risk over the weekend, perhaps, and on the carnage to many AI names after key earnings reports spooked much of the AI sector. It is worth noting that on balance, October was a strong to very strong month for almost all non-tech sectors, something many portfolios may not have felt. Also, we preview the week ahead in macro and day ahead in earnings reports and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Tucker Carlson X post on Trump supposedly planning a nuclear strike in Iran is making the rounds. Let's hope this remains very much in the crazy and unfounded rumours category - it's unimaginable. Reuters on Trump administration mapping a path to govern without Congress. Luke Gromen on Macrovoices worth a listen - though a bit sceptical on his specific claims that AI already feeding job losses. The comments on risks of fiscal belt-tightening post-election are important.…

Today - a market wrap after another big downdraft in AI names and even the broader market this time, as Amazon and Intel results sent chills and on the fear and loathing on the risks of the Iran War resuming in force. But most of all, a very long form take on the US mid-term elections next Tuesday, with thoughts on what could be at stake for both markets and US politics, not to mention the longer term outlook and important durable themes. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links The slide deck for the US mid-terms. Specific US mid-term elections where the issue of data centers is in play. The SCMP on US tipping culture gone out of control - also whether it is a part of the creeping cost of living problem in the US and whether it is getting picked up in official measures of inflation. I have noticed this on travels back to the US in recent years - very annoying. Shouldn't businesses pay their workers a living wage rather than harassing customers? Thoughtful Saxo Market…

Today, the market ended Wednesday on a positive move as the FOMC proved semi-dovish, at least according to market impressions, while the vibe changed sharply after the close on Alphabet's earnings miss relative to expectations, though most of the sentiment damage seems limited. ServiceNow got fewer headlines but was down 18.5% on its earnings report, triggering contagion across SaaS stocks. Elsewhere, we break down the FOMC event yesterday, today's ECB and the focus on a successor for President Lagarde as she announced today she will leave her post in February. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links John's The FX Trader from today. Aswath Damodaran takes a stab at assessing Anthropic's market value, wild assumptions and all, ahead of its IPO. Yes, the assumptions for his model inputs may prove way off, but once we know more in the quarters ahead, we can plug some of the new figures into Damodaran's still useful overall model. Other voices…

Today, covering the strong session yesterday and overnight in Asia for much of the AI hardware space, although Seagate Technology was a notable exception overnight and wondering how much of the story is linked to the incoming Anthropic IPO. Certainly an important test for the AI trade as three Mag7 hyperscalers are reporting today (Microsoft and Alphabet and tomorrow (Amazon.com). Lots going on in central bank landing as all G3 central banks are set to meet today through Friday, so it feels like a pivotal timeframe for nearly everything. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Saxo webinar covering the US mid-term election and possible market impact (hosted by John and Raphael Olsynza-Marzys of J. Safra Sarasin). Scroll to bottom of page to the Previous Webinars section. WSJ with a long form profile of Google's top AI guy Demis Hassabis and why he believes the world is set to change radically (not sure how much it delivered on the latter, but…

Today, we look at the market's enthusiasm for the coming Anthropic IPO, which took an important step closer with the release of their S1 prospectus yesterday. The floating of the company will prove a massive test for the AI trade. Elsewhere, plenty more to discuss as the Euro is coming under pressure again despite a bid for French sovereign debt yesterday. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links The UK Autumn Budget is incoming tomorrow from Chancellor Healey. There is talk of a more pragmatic approach from Burnham's government. Here is a thorough look at UK finances and perspective on what might be needed in this budget to stabilize the outlook for the UK's finances from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research commentators. Michael McNair warns on how Anthropic's cost side may have been underestimated and warns very thoroughly with a rare, general bear market call, mostly based on concerns related to a cybersecurity event,…

Today, a look at another US equity market session Friday marked by huge market divergences as we also look into what may be driving this phenomenon. Elsewhere, we preview a very busy week ahead, with the big three central banks all set to meet this week and an ongoing blitz of incoming earnings reports, with three of the Mag7 reporting. Perhaps most importantly, we remind of the terrible overhang of geopolitical uncertainty as Israel and the US are posturing with significant force build-ups in the Middle East. This and more in today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Michael Every highlighted this article from the FT on the EU having its own wakeup moment on critical material supply chains and taking equity stakes in new ventures. Albert Bridge Capital talks about the profound short-termism of traders and investors active in the US equity market as having shades of both the tech/telecom bubble and the Nifty Fifty era in the 1970's, and about the potential longer…

Today we break down the big sell-off in US equities, as ironically there were almost twice as many gainers as losers in the S&P 500 yesterday, with the selling chiefly focused on AI-related companies. Elsewhere, it was a much bigger day for bonds, which rallied steeply as US treasuries finally functioned as a proper and unambiguous safe haven, at least for a day. The impact on FX from that was also interesting, as the JPY stirred more forcefully. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links John's The FX Trader from today Will the real JPY please stand up?, talking especially USD and JPY and next week's five central bank meets. The Captain America program for dogs? Sounds creepy and hopefully without any super serums. Weren't we supposed to deploy robots instead? The Wired on the ice age that wasn't because we humans like to burn stuff. A heightened cyber-attack risk PSA - please be careful out there! Read daily in-depth market updates from the…

Today, we look at the violent vibe shift in the US equity market, which crumbled overnight after a quite positive session, led by the very high momentum sectors that posted a solid result yesterday. It doesn't feel like this is all coming from negative reactions to earnings results from the likes of Tesla or Lam Research - but what is it? We wonder if it could be geopolitics. Also on today's pod, we delve way back into the financial history of the 1870's depression and its origins and aggravations, whether hedge fund strategies that are blowing up are further aggravating the French debt market instabilities and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links The eFinancialCareers story that anecdotally suggests some of the stress on French debt could be down to ill-advised bets that mean reversion on French yield spreads would remain operative. HT to Cory Doctorow for this substack post on the Singularity (when AI and technology suddenly begin outstripping human…

Today, a look at yet another day of US equity market divergences, as the major indices and semiconductors posted an indifferent to slightly negative day while most stocks were up solidly on the day. This rhymes with another market from around the years 2000-01. Also, a look at SpaceX and Netflix earnings and the very different reactions. French yields and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Japan is running short of yttrium as China cuts of supplies, likely on the excuse that Japan is remilitarizing. A long form debate on the importance and denouement of the massive US current account deficit, the world's most important imbalance. Someone pokes into how Coreweave's bonds can be under so much strain when it still has over USD 30 billion in equity. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an…

Today, we look at the markets trying to get back in a positive mood yesterday in the US, but with the broader market and the rest of the world not having any of it as oil prices surged once again and as the situation in France continues to fester. Discomfort with stability of AI "neo-cloud" companies is also weighing. With earnings season hitting full swing this week, we wonder why SpaceX is suddenly set to report earnings today. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Bloomberg covers what needs to happen to get French yields under control, which mostly boils down to cutting the transfer payments to old people. At least they might be less likely to riot and set things on fire? Here's an excellent take on the why of the French riots, with a hat-tip to Izabella Kaminska for the link. Business Insider reports on Amazon's racks of AI servers not able to connect to the grid. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the…

Today, a look at a massive comeback from further steep selling in US equities, establishing a critical line in the sand for the major indices and especially AI-adjacent names from here, effectively a bull-bear line. Elsewhere, Tesla demonstrated its new Roadster, which can both "fly" for an unknown number of seconds and "suck" itself to the road, allowing for beyond vertical adherence to a road surfaces and supposedly insane cornering abilities. Useful. More importantly, a deep-dive on the global oil picture and the troublesome Brent futures contract with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and so much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Elon Musk shows off the supposedly coming-in-2028 Tesla Roadster - an admittedly beautiful car with pointless and over-the-top suck and blow features. Robert Pape posts on the doubling of support for political violence in the US, with the anti-Trump respondents more in favour, though we wonder if that is…

Today, a look at a wild day for US treasuries as a hot US CPI print first pumps US treasury yields, only to see longer-dated yields end the day at the lowest level in weeks. The US dollar followed yields lower and the implication is that treasuries may be a safe haven again as in the days of yore, given that stocks were generally weak for the entire post-CPI episode yesterday. This and much more, including what is spooking this market and where to focus next as earnings season hits full stride next week. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links John's The FX Trader piece from today. I made an error on the podcast, it was not Michael Every himself but Every reposting a comical Luke Gromen X post asking whether this Fed will reflexively hike merely based on the direction of the oil price, in which case its monetary policy is in the hands of Iran and the IRGC. Coverage of China's treasury holdings and whether it is merely shifting these to custodian banks outside the US…

Today a look at signs of extreme tightening in credit concerns for a few key names even as stock and bond markets saw a quiet day and the general drift in credit conditions was only mildly negative. Also, a look at the first incoming US earnings reports and negative reception of some of the best numbers from Goldman Sachs. This and much more, especially on the many links below, on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links The Convexity Maven Harley Bassman is concerned about negative convexity for the longest US bonds. Don't understand? It's important stuff and worth trying to wrap your head around it. Paul Tudor Jones states his case on CNBC (audio only link) for ugly headwinds for US stocks in 2027. FT Exclusive covers Marine Le Pen's ambitions to transform and reduce the EU's powers - the coming election season and French debt situation are critical for the future of Europe. Round two will be the eventual German response if/when she becomes president next…

Today we look at yesterday's ugly session for tech and AI-related stocks, noting the follow on action once again in Asia overnight as well, all while the median stock was almost unchanged on the day. Elsewhere, we note US treasuries opening up heavily bid after the bank holiday and wonder whether US treasuries are suddenly serving their traditional role as a safe haven again. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links John's The FX Trader piece from yesterday. A WSJ long read looks at the risk of a lost generation in China on the weakening economy there. KKGB's 38-part thread that tries to pick apart the AI bull case, (you have to click around to find the entire thread). Reuters story looks at the US auto loan market, noting record high defaults and the extension of financing on very old cars. A hilarious AI-generated parody of a "MarsX colony" on the red planet. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo…

Today we look at the Russia diesel deal that will, spoiler alert, fail to meaningfully impact the supply situation for any length of time, but also consider the risk of a Ukraine-US rift. Elsewhere, macro traders are holding their breath for this Wednesday's US September CPI report, Palantir has just bolted to a new all time high and earnings season is set to kick off in earnest tomorrow. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Ole's latest rundown of the weekly US futures COT positioning report. Token prices are collapsing while GPU rents are steady at high levels - something doesn't add up. Could OpenAI and/or Anthropic be scheming to manipulate US authorities into giving them a bailout and oligopoly status by triggering a harmful hacking event? Here's a possible playbook for the conspiracy theorists. A geopolitical strategist says that all of the stress points globally are related and part of a wider war.…

Today, a look at the sudden contagion across markets Thursday on the FT reporting that OpenAI's revenue run rate is supposedly lower than OpenAI has claimed, with subsequent analysis inconclusive because of the opacity of the data, allowing markets to largely come full circle from the reaction, but at the same time revealing the risk of market fragility should an important AI-linked company report something negative. Elsewhere, SpaceX is making waves in traditional telephony and earnings season is about to kick off. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links We often pass along plenty of links with skeptical takes on AI, but maybe we should balance out occasionally with more positive taks on potential for this wild AI spending to extend out over the horizon for years to come. Of course, if you would rather listen to uber-skeptic Ed Zitron, you can tune in here, here and here. UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham is in hot water after comments on the…

Today, we note the rather ugly risk off tone across markets, with strong Samsung and TSMC earnings reports received somewhat poorly by the market overnight in Asia. Europe is suffering another weak session even as the key US indices once again managed a resilient performance, but can they continue to do so with the worrisome backdrop? Also today, full coverage of the latest oil spike, EU's natural gas situation, sugar and gold and silver with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen. This and more on today's pod, which was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Today's FT Big Read is on the leveraging up of hedge fund and semi-institutional players like Citadel and Jane Street and how these have become cash cows for the likes of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. How risky is all that leverage? Another stab among many out there at how the AI bubble pops. Or will it be called the SI bubble at that point. World War II sugar rationing in UK provided a valuable experiment on the…

Today, a look at Europe and the euro looking suddenly troubled again today as France continues to draw negative attention and Eurozone sovereign yield spreads have widened again today after France's Le Pen presented a long term budget plan on Tuesday. Elsewhere, sterling is charging higher against the single currency and Musk's net worth is back close to a trillion USD, chiefly on his SpaceX holdings. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Liaquat Ahamed has written a new book - I have it down as my next read: 1873: The First Great Depression and the Making of the Modern World. It could be a timely one to consider if the current investment binge ends up driving a similar outcome. Michael Burry recommended a paid substack with a deep-dive on Nvidia and its prospects. Don't know what to say about this other than to put it out there, but there has been some considerable speculation that Xi Jinping may be suffering from poor health. Read…

Today, we note the confounding combination of very rough seas in macro and FX as EU sovereign debt stress, yield volatility and a strong US dollar weigh, and yet equities seem to be sailing along as if nothing malicious is afoot. Some coverage of why Tesla and especially SpaceX rallied hard on Friday as the latter moves closer to its plans to launch space-based AI data centers, with Google test units already along for the ride. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Anthropic takes a stab at estimating how quickly (or slowly, actually) the robot overlords will take over human labor. Ukraine is already deploying robots on the battlefield, with some success. The Half Macro Half Climate substack points to the tensions that will continue to aggravate the risks for French debt and France's status within the EU on the exodus of assets from the financially troubled republic. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the…

Today we look at the crush lower in short term sovereign bond yields, especially in Europe, where Germany's bonds were bid while French and even Italian longer dated bonds remain stressed, a key focus for European markets and increasingly for the euro currency. The retreat in most sovereign bond yields has buoyed market sentiment today, but some underlying stress signs are still there, and credit spreads were wider yesterday elsewhere as well. Elsewhere, new geopolitical developments are worth paying attention to, including this weekend's election in Brazil. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Is dynamic AI pricing a great way to optimize your business or will it just annoy customers into going elsewhere? Reuters covers McDonald's attempt to find out. Looks risky. KKGB notes the risk of a self-reinforcing negative spiral in the current French debt situation from local debt without some dramatic change of course. BBC says that Meta's…

Today, focusing chiefly on the implications for stocks and risk sentiment broadly if yields don't turn lower very soon, especially in Europe, where the focus on France is intensifying while Germany-France yield spreads blow wider and France puts together its budget proposal for the coming year. Some perspectives on how poorly the median US stock is doing relative to the strong overal indices as well and much more on macro and FX. Links Rosenberg and Gundlach talk shop for nearly 90 minutes and how the bond market might respond to a coming slowdown and/or crisis. An audiophile talks what it means to be an audiophile. A bit over the top, but we could all be listening to much better music if we ditch the Bluetooth and ANC. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing…

Today, a look at a calm market as a massive downdraft in US Consumer Confidence in September failed to weigh. Lots more data ahead before we know where we are with yields through Friday's US September payrolls and others jobs data. Elsewhere, UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham declared the end of Thatcherism and prospect for a much more visible hand from the UK government. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Regarding Micron's earnings after the close today, What would Warren Buffett think of Micron? asks the Parabolic substack. Part 2 of the Michael Every interview on all things geo-strategic, with a particularly compelling discussion on the AGI race between US and China. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is…

Today, a look back at another dicey day for risk sentiment as global bond yields continued to ratchet higher as we head into month-end and quarter-end with possible portfolio rebalancing in the mix after a remarkable period for fixed income. Elsewhere, our overall global risk indicator is under the most pressure since the Liberation Day episode in the spring of 2025, even if equity market sentiment remains relatively stable. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Michael Every's latest global macro piece: A great deal of concern. Michael Kao makes a great point on the "rate sensitive narrative" not adding up. Alexander Stahel claims Hormuz Strait flows are 94% of normal. So what is the oil price doing here still? To be fair, he still points out some concerns. Izabella Kaminska on how AI assistants might contribute to a rise in funding costs for banks. FTAlphaville covers US Treasury Secretary Bessent's hire of David Zervos, recycling the…

Today - a look at a fresh spike in crude oil and bond yields spooking risk sentiment and gold bugs as we look at a busy week ahead on the macro calendar, especially for US data, but also an historic moment awaits the UK in tomorrow's speech from PM Burnham. The stakes are high for gilts and sterling. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Again, here is the link from Friday to the fascinating article about the possible reason for the end of the Bronze Age (also might be what took out Troy rather than Odysseus and his gang in the Trojan horse, by the way) - the spread of iron weapons, which "democratized violence" As well as whether (we ardently hope not) there is a parallel of a kind in our age in the form of drone technology. FTAlphaville article covers whether enough data centers will be built (or importantly to be plugged in to the power grid) to house all of the GPU's and other hardware that is supposedly set to be produced over the…

Today, a run through the outlook for crude oil with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen as we face a key week ahead, given Iran's bid for a 7-day negotiation window with the US. More with Ole on natural gas, the El Niño status and impacts and gold. Elsewhere, a run through the macro and rates and the week ahead, together with interesting single stocks stories driving the market action yesterday. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Michael Every on the latest Macrovoices podcast, with a bit more granularity and bias on what may happen next than usual on Iran and Ukraine/Russia. John's latest The FX Trader piece with thoughts on USDJPY and much more. FT focus piece on quantum computing and whether there is a path to profit for the technology. FT on UK & German exposure to Chinese economy, but leaving out in the title that the US is way up there with these two economies as well. FTAlphaville with a provocative headline: SpaceX pivots away from space. Whoa.…

Today, we wonder how long markets can take any extension of the latest rather brutal sell-off in global bonds, which have taken the entire US yield curve from 5-years and out to new post-global financial crisis highs. Also, a look at the macro and FX reaction to bond market developments, the risk to macro trades if intervention is incoming at some point, and the three central bank meetings this morning. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links FTAlphaville passed along an archived The Verge article on Meta's latest big scramble to diversify its business model away from over-reliance on its core "social media" platforms with Muse and now the Muse Charm. Should we just stop? (Unplug from the social media and influencer rate race that no longer connects us in meaningful ways?). We probably should, but will we and how? Meanwhile, the AI data centre buildout is the largest single investment boom ever, as a percent of GDP, than the canal building,…

Today - a look at how narrow the advance is in the US equity market that is taking the main indices close to their record highs and how this rhymes with past less-than-promising outcomes.. As well, we encourage market participants to keep bond yields and geopolitical headline risks on the radar - particularly for Europe if Trump announces an embargo on exporting diesel. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Some believe that Trump shouldn't and even really shouldn't announce a diesel export embargo Beware bond holders and savers! Russell Napier is a must-listen on a long-form podcast on the coming financial repression as we move to build what must be built and do so while keeping governments funded. A Substack post on China's AI scene - very thorough. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to…

Today, we covered the breaking news of Iran's possible overture on opening the Hormuz Strait, followed by a breakdown of the market's strong risk-on reaction to news of strong demand for Meta's Muse personal AI assistant app, especially the cluster of stocks that rallied the most on the news. Elsewhere, a look at the state of play in FX and interest rates, geopolitical news flow and much more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Some color on the Meta-Amazon dispute, but you can do better if you want to understand the nature of the issue with an AI prompt like "How best to understand the nature of the Amazon-Meta dispute regarding the blocking of the Muse app and what is at stake in the big picture for the two companies that lies adjacent to this issue." Wired magazine says that Meta's Muse is better at surveilling than at helping. Sounds about right if you use the Charlie Munger maxim "Show me the incentive…

Today a look at equity market divergences in evidence on Friday as many stocks were lower, perhaps on the fresh rise in bond yields, while many large cap and momentum stocks did well on the day and are off to a strong start this week. Elsewhere, USDJPY is the critical focus in FX, there is plenty to discuss on the geopolitical front, both in terms of oil supply risks and the Trump-Xi summit set for Thursday and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links As we look at high petrol and record diesel prices in recent days, the WSJ covered the risk of a US refined product export embargo, how it would work and the potential price impacts. WSJ does a more than 30-minute deep dive on North Korea's secret US work force. Remarkable stuff. On the headlines trumpeting Saudi Arabia's quitting mBridge, China's cross-border currency platform, apparently there may far less of geopolitical import. Consider coverage on X from Endgame Macro and Luke Gromen as well as the most…

Today, a look at the steep JPY sell-off post Bank of Japan rate hike as the market was gunning for a firmer commitment to BoJ hiking and a stronger US dollar was already weighing in the background. Also, the BoE surprised slightly dovishly but moved to stabilize the long end of the UK yield curve. Also, we look at the pivotal situation for US stocks as we navigate triple witching ahead of next week's action. This and more on today's podcast, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy Links John's latest The FX Trader piece looking at the Bank of Japan reaction, Bank of England meeting and USDJPY technicals. The Real Eisman Playbook podcast poo-poohs the idea that AI security concerns are the real driver of Anthropic's call for a "slowdown". And FTAlphaville is out joining the dots with its latest AI cross-commitment diagram showing how all of the AI companies financing is interconnected. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here.…

Today, a look at the hawkish FOMC meeting yesterday, especially Fed Chair Warsh's positioning of the rate hike yesterday as merely removing accommodation, together with the sharp market reaction that has been surprisingly quick to unwind in places. Is this in respect of the incoming BoJ, the deflation of oil prices or because we are entering a new pivot zone for interest rates and possibly the US dollar? This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Meta's Zuckerberg isn't for the AI slowdown, prefers "evaluators" DeepQuarry questions Anthropic's pre-IPO claims of its profitability (first portion of post available for free) Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries…

Today, a look at a remarkably resilient equity market even as the fresh spike in oil prices weigh and global bond yields have rushed to new highs for the cycle in many key markets. Looking at US equity market internals, the impact of Anthropic CEO Amodei's call for a "slowdown" in AI development (and perhaps Trump's aggressive poo-pooing of the idea) seems a more important factor for this market, as key AI hardware names sold off and many software-as-a-service companies rallied steeply on the day. Lots more on today's pod on commodities with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and on macro and FX and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links A great LinkedIn post from Felix Martin (HT to the great Izabella Kaminska) with a round-up of other links to the debate on open-source (usually really open-weight) versus closed source AI models - not necessarily drawing the same conclusion that the market drew from Anthropic's "slowdown" call. One of the better links was…

Today, a heady cocktail of developments are coming at us across geopolitics, intermarket forces, but especially a new twist in the AI story as Anthropic CEO Amodei calls for an AI development "slowdown" with other key industry voices chiming in with supportive comments. We discuss what this may be all about as risk sentiment is rather spooked by the story and by the latest surge in oil prices and bond yields still pressing on cycle highs. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen breaks down the latest COT report showing shifts in positioning across the US futures market complex, including some huge shifts in the FX space. Arnaud Bertrand says China is hyperscaling an AI data center far beyond anything the rest of the world has ever seen in the autonomous region of Inner Mongolia. WSJ runs an article on Russia's new generations of drones, which are applying new levels of pressure on Ukraine. Cory…

Today, a look at the rip higher in global yields as crude oil prices spiked and the ECB surprised on the hawkish side of expectations. The market is trying to recover its equilibrium on hopes that a Monday meeting between GCC members and Iran will set things right. In the meantime, we have the US CPI report to get out of the way today, an FOMC meeting next Wednesday and Bank of Japan meeting next Friday to contend with. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links John's The FX Trader piece from today, on currency moves and what to watch for next. Goldman Sachs says that interest rates are set to remain higher and outlines why. LA Times on how the AI future is already here for some forms of video entertainment in China. Some profound thinking on where we are in the "interregnum" as we transition away from the old world order and into the new one. A taste: "Gramsci’s interregnum, the “time of monsters” when the old is dying and the new cannot be…

Today, we note the fresh pop in US treasury yields to new cycle highs after the Treasury market buyback and Treasury Secretary Bessent's posturing failed to shore up confidence. Elsewhere, it was a rather negative day for risk sentiment on the latest aggravated rise in crude oil prices and that rise in yields, with Europe particularly spooked ahead of today's ECB meeting. We note key equity stories like Apple's (Gen Z targeted?) pricey new foldable phone, Meta's pop on the enthusiasm for its Muse AI agent. Most of all, we queue up what to look for over tomorrow's US CPI release. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Trump wants cheap hamburger meat ahead of the mid-terms. Matt Stoller covers the story and shows what this may cost him politically with some of his base - and what it may cost those consuming the questionable meat. Yikes. The FT version of the widely covered resignation of an Anthropic researcher over concerns that the company is not doing enough to…

Today, a thorough look across the commodity space with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen, discussing the latest developments in oil, refined products and the natural gas markets, the drivers for the recent record highs in the copper price and whether that price remains "too low" relative to gold if suppliers are to increase production. Elsewhere, a discussion of the latest moves in equities, a still heavy focus on FX and rates as the yen is on the move and yields are pushing on the highs for the cycle ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow and US August CPI report up on Friday. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Does heavy AI us mean that students don't learn as much? Probably, but there are nuances. "In China and many other countries, well-designed tutoring tools already exist, often at nearly zero cost. Most students just do not use them. Rather, they prefer general-purpose AI tools that make it easy to outsource homework." Erik Townsend points out the very…

Today, noting the significant technical break lower for USDJPY and what may come next, with spiking energy prices somewhat of a headwind for JPY bulls and for global risk sentiment in general. At what point could energy prices suddenly seize more of the market's attention bandwidth? Elsewhere, we look into the record copper price, which is partially related to Hormuz Strait woes, Amazon's abuses of its monopoly status, geopolitics and much more. Hosting today's pod is Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links John's The FX Trader piece from today, focusing mostly on the yen. Cory Doctorow carves up Amazon for its "payola" practices and aggressive extraction of profits, even for shipping, from the sellers on its platform. Here's a podcast that goes into where risk may be hiding in the cozy relationship between some insurance companies and private credit outfits. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at…

Today, most interesting to note that the positive US jobs report was unable to inspire sustained new highs in US treasury yields or spark a US dollar rally, with USDJPY even breaking down below critical support to start the week as US markets are closed for the extended Labor Day holiday. Elsewhere, AI hardware stocks are trying to get back their mojo as OpenAI has released its latest model. More on the earnings and macro focus for the week ahead and much more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links An X post by "JH" describing the alarming copper supply shortage that must be overcome, likely with a tremendous price signal, if we are to continue building out AI and electrifying our economies. OpenAI's chief scientist with a piece on the prospects of AI achieving new levels of super-human intelligence and the implications in a piece somewhat ominously titled An Alien Mind. In the wake of watershed Germany elections at the weekend in Saxony-Anhalt and…

Today, a look at the very confusing comments from the Fed's Waller, who waxed dovish so soon after Chair Warsh's recent hawkish musings that the market doesn't know what to do with the next FOMC meeting. Gold and crypto rose sharply on Waller's comments. Also, important incoming US jobs data today for the US treasury market, but especially for USDJPY after the big move higher in the JPY this week, which arguably has more fundamental support than previous rounds of official intervention were able to provide. This and much more on today's pod, especially on another good day for Tesla and whether we are at some kind of Cybercab inflection point. Hosting today is Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Bloomberg discusses the odd meeting of Japan's largest (and word's largest) pension fund and whether this means a raise of allocation to Japanese government bonds, with this story likely an important contributor to the recent JPY rally. A Tech Crunch article discusses Tesla's polling the market for…

Today, a look at markets pausing to take a breath after the recent brutal rise in bond yields. The biggest mover Wednesday and Thursday was the Japanese yen on an apparent fresh round of intervention, although some interesting dynamics are at play in the Japanese government bond market as well. Elsewhere, a look at extreme bifurcation in AI stories for single names after earnings reports. A big focus on macro and FX and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Breathlessly enthusiastic Silicon Valley types talk up the most optimistic outlook for AI I have heard anywhere. Who am I to say they won't be right, but it was a bit nauseating listening, nonetheless with interesting details here and there. Gil Duran wrote the ingeniously titled Nerd Reich, a book charging that a tech oligarchy is undermining our democratic institutions and trying to establish a techno-authoritarian state. He traces the intellectual backdrop of its adherents like Peter Thiel,…

Today, we look at the hefty risk-off tone across markets, if with a few notable exceptions, as risk assets are justifiably spooked by the further ramping in global bond yields. We argue that the situation feels like it has entered a zone of instability that could see volatility rising further in the near term, not that it has risen that much yet. Elsewhere, a lot of macro and FX coverage, especially on the aggressive spike in front-end Japanese rates to price in a more hawkish BoJ, and yet the yen is sluggish in its response. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Ole's latest piece pointing out that many integrated oil majors have outperformed many of the top market cap companies and AI hyperscalers on both 1-year and 5-year time horizons. A Reuters article says G20 should consider raising trade barriers to China for its unfair policies. This sparked an great conversation on X between Steve Hou and the WSJ's Greg Ip on the nature of the…

Today a look at the implications across markets as global yields are breaking higher at the long end of the yield curve, from the US 10-year, which hit a new 19-month high, to the German Bund hitting a 15-year high and 10-year JGB a 30-year high at 3.00%. We have a busy macro calendar for the week ahead as well, particularly for the US. Elsewhere, we note the spike higher in natural gas prices for Europe, the driver's for Tesla's big advance yesterday and much more. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Dwarkesh Patel's writeup on the crazy "Hugging Face indicident" that was so much more, as AI agents went rogue and even took control of an AI research cluster at one point. Germany's political "firewall" against the far right may crumble in Saxony-Anholt in this weekend's elections. Jim Bianco looks at the largest single driver of the swelling in S&P 500 profits this year: Anthropic's valuation! Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the…

Today, a look at Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish posturings at the Fed's Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium on Friday and the reaction across markets, which seemed most decisive for gold more than for the US dollar or risk sentiment more broadly. Also, we wonder how much more the market can get out of the Fed's hiking potential as we await the next move from Bessent and company at Treasury if US treasury yields rise from here. Much more in today's pod on FX and macro and the busy week ahead with host John J. Hardy, Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy. Links Michael Every was recently on Thoughtful Money recently and I found the discussion of stablecoins the most enlightening, a bit more into the specifics and the assumptions needed to make this work than I have heard previously from Every and others. Katie Martin wonders, as we also do on the podcast, when the "new age of financial repression" is coming. Mark Zuckerberg's Social Reckoning. (The New Yorker) A WSJ op-ed frets the risk of a US food crisis, in part on…

Today, a rundown of key commodity markets as oil markets remain tame and refined products are the bigger pinch point, gold and silver seem ready to rally anew if Fed Chair Warsh fails to roll out a hawkish stance in his speech today, and grain and soft prices are likely set to record their strongest month in years. Elsewhere, the stock market is putting on a show of strength on the surface as everyone hopes, bond traders included, that Fed Chair Warsh is set to give the markets some clarity on his stance on policy today. Can it be so lucky? Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator put out a priceless piece picking apart the absurdities and dangers of the current market environment - a must read for both content and the high entertainment value. The FT's Robin Wigglesworth with a NY Times op-ed on how the AI debt binge could sink the economy. Friend of the show Peter Garnry out with a piece on…

Today, with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo we look through three of the key earnings report seeing very positive market responses, topped by Nvidia's strong report and outlook. We go through the details, the good points and a few concerns in places. Elsewhere, macro is quiet and a lower oil price is helpful, but grains are on fire, in part linked to geopolitical concerns that continue to present difficult-to-quantify risks. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links As Michael Every predicted, the US is now considering the equivalent of "letters of marque" or 19th century and earlier era policies allowing private operators to serve as extension of US power overseas, for things like seizing Iran's oil. Today's very compelling set of FTAlphaville Further Reading links very much worth a browse. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for…